Fuel Freedom Staff

Brent crude off 48 percent for the year, worst drubbing since ’08

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Hey, did you hear oil prices fell in 2014?

Now that the year in oil trading is officially over, traders are counting the damage, and it’s like monitoring the progress of a boulder rolling down a mountain:

Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell another 57 cents Wednesday to close the calendar at $57.33 a barrel. Brent, as well as gasoline futures, fell 48 percent during the course of the year, making them the worst-performing commodities among the 22 markets tracked by the Bloomberg Commodity Index.

U.S. oil futures were off 85 cents Wednesday, to $53.27, and were down 46 percent for the year.

Read more in The Wall Street Journal.

The report said the oil, gasoline and diesel markets posted their worst annual losses since 2008, the year markets plunged because of the financial crisis.

Oil, gasoline and diesel markets all posted their largest annual losses since the global recession in 2008.

Wednesday’s price drop marked a “poetic end to…what ended up being a difficult year for the oil and gas industry,” said Adam Wise, managing director at John Hancock Financial Services, who helps oversee about $7 billion in energy-related investments.

Fuel Freedom Staff

U.S. allows export of some oil, loosening four-decade ban

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The U.S. Department of Commerce has relaxed, somewhat, the nation’s four-decade-long ban on oil exports, put in place after the 1973 oil crisis that caused widespread shortages around the United States.

The Obama administration’s move will allow the sale of up to 1 million barrels a day of ultra-light crude. The decision likely will please U.S. drillers and many politicians who have said the U.S. export ban is a relic of an outdated policy.

Reuters reported specifics:

The latest measures were wrapped in regulatory jargon and couched by some as a basic clarification of existing rules, but analysts said the message was unambiguous: a green light for any company willing and able to process their light condensate crude through a distillation tower, a simple piece of oilfield kit.

“In practice this long-awaited move can open up the floodgates to substantial increases in exports by end 2015,” Ed Morse, global head of commodities research at Citigroup in New York said in a research note.

Fuel Freedom Staff

Not even a Libyan oil fire can stop price slide

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Oil prices briefly spiked Monday, in apparent reaction to a fire at the Libyan oil port of Es Sider the past few days.

But prices settled down again, to their lowest levels since May 2009, after the blaze was put out in three of the six oil tanks, Bloomberg reported.

Libya was pumping about 352,000 barrels of crude a day until a rocket attack at the port on Christmas Day reduced production to 128,000 barrels a day. In 2010, Libya was pumping about 1.6 million barrels a day, but that was before the overthrow and killing of longtime ruler Muammar Gaddafi in October 2011, an event that unleashed a civil war.

The attack at Es Sider was enough to prompt an early rally in the commodity Monday, but by the end of the trading session Brent crude was down $1.57, to $57.88. The U.S. benchmark, WTI, fell $1.12, to $53.61. That’s the lowest level since May 1, 2009.

Reuters reported:

The rally followed by the steep drop showed the market’s fears about oversupply are not going away, said Gene McGillian, senior analyst at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “Every time the market tries to pick itself up, it’s just another wave of selling,” he said.

Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citi Futures Perspective in New York, told Bloomberg that neither the violence in Libya, nor the reduction in the growth rate of U.S. drilling, was enough to make a dent in the worldwide glut of oil. “We’re looking at a significant supply-demand surplus through the first half of 2015,” Evans said.

Bloomberg added:

“The loss of a couple hundred thousand barrels from Libya will have a minimal impact on the global supply balance,” Bob Yawger, director of the futures division at Mizuho Securities USA Inc. in New York, said by phone. “There’s about 2 million barrels a day of excess production right now, so this will just tighten things a little.”

Arctic Leaf

Can ethanol benefit from a drop in oil prices?

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A new school of thought has emerged that ethanol may actually benefit from the recent fall in oil prices, to nearly half their level of a few months ago.

The main exponent of this theory is Andrew Topf, writing on OilPrice.com. His logic is sound, and there are a few recent developments to back him up. It isn’t a sure thing, but there is a strong possibility that ethanol could emerge from the current oil price plunge as a winner.

Here’s the argument Topf makes: He acknowledges that ethanol prices have fallen along with gas prices, so the market doesn’t look very promising. Also bedeviling the industry is the foot-dragging by the Environmental Protection Agency, which has not yet set a renewable goal for ethanol for 2014. The EPA is supposed to set a number every year that specifies how much corn ethanol will be consumed. This is supposed to be enough to meet the 10 percent standard that ethanol is supposed to meet in replacing gasoline every year.

Buffeted by this uncertainty, however, the industry has taken its own initiative and started exporting ethanol. To its surprise, the market has proved very favorable. Canada, the Philippines and Japan have all proved to be receptive to the idea of stretching their gasoline supplies with ethanol. Green Plains, Inc., one of the major U.S. producers, is going to export 15 percent of its product in the fourth quarter of 2014. “We are booking export sales into 2015, extending into the third quarter of next year,” Green Plains president and CEO Todd Becker told investors in a conference call in October. “We typically have not seen export interest that far out in the future.”

The U.S. has pursued contradictory policy on ethanol from the beginning, giving the encouragement of the 10 percent mandate, coupled with subsidies and tax breaks going back to the 1990s. Then became President Bush’s mandates, which guaranteed a market for ethanol through 2023 and also specified a market for cellulosic ethanol, which has never materialized — even though the EPA has charged refiners for a product that didn’t exist.

So what will happen with ethanol amid falling oil prices? One straw in the wind came in South Bend, Indiana, where a corn ethanol plant that had been closed for several years finally reopened. The chances for the plant to succeed are much greater now that corn prices are at their lowest in five years, Purdue University agricultural economics professor Christopher A. Hurt told The Times of Northwest Indiana. “I think the prospects appear to be quite favorable for that plant if they can get it up and running as quickly as possible,” he said. And that doesn’t take into account the possibilities for export to countries that are dependent on imported oil.

The ethanol effort is often criticized as one that wouldn’t even exist were it not for government support that has boosted it all the way. The entire farm bloc are now supporters of ethanol. However, to everyone’s surprise, when the subsidies ended, ethanol production kept increasing!

Now that ethanol has found a market abroad, it is possible that even amidst falling oil prices, the industry will be able to even keep growing. Ethanol still has a high octane level and substitutes for much more noxious chemicals by blending with gasoline. Its role as at least a 10 percent additive seems secure. Now let’s find out if ethanol can find a place in the world market as well.

Fuel Freedom Staff

Saudis might actually increase oil output

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Saudi Arabia isn’t cutting production anytime soon, despite lobbying from some of the 12-nation cartel’s members to try to stem falling oil prices. In fact, the Saudis might actually boost output to gain new customers.

Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia’s oil minister, Ali al-Naimi, said it’s not in OPEC’s interest to cut production quotas no matter how far prices fall:

After a weekend of comments from several Gulf OPEC members reiterating their intent not to intervene in oil markets, despite oil prices that have halved since June, Ali al-Naimi told the Middle East Economic Survey it was “not in the interest of OPEC producers to cut their production, whatever the price is” — his starkest comments yet.

Naimi also said the Saudis might boost output instead to grow their market share and that oil “may not” trade at $100 again. “The best thing for everybody is to let the most efficient producers produce,” he told a conference in Abu Dhabi at the weekend.

Olivier Jakob, an oil analyst at Petromatrix OIl in Switzerland, commented in an earlier version of the Reuters story:

“We are going down because you have some OPEC ministers who come every day making statements trying to drive the market down. … They come every day to convey the message that they are not doing anything to restrict supplies and that they basically want oil prices to move lower to reduce production in the U.S.”

Brent crude dropped $1.33, to $60.05.

Fuel Freedom Staff

Ben Casselman: The conventional wisdom on oil is always wrong

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This is something we knew already: Oil prices fluctuate. Like all commodities, prices go up, and then they go down, and few experts know exactly why, or how far, or for how long trends will endure.

But FiveThirtyEight.com’s Ben Casselman, who used to cover the oil patch for The Wall Street Journal, outlines (in typical well-executed FiveThirtyEight style), all the ways that people have gotten oil predictions so horribly wrong this year.

Here’s one of the many instructive passages from his piece:

It isn’t just that experts didn’t see the shale boom coming. It’s that they underestimated its impact at virtually every turn. First, they didn’t think natural gas could be produced from shale (it could). Then they thought production would fall quickly if natural gas prices dropped (they did, and it didn’t). They thought the techniques that worked for gas couldn’t be applied to oil (they could). They thought shale couldn’t reverse the overall decline in U.S. oil production (it did). And they thought rising U.S. oil production wouldn’t be enough to affect global oil prices (it was).

Now, oil prices are cratering, falling below $55 a barrel from more than $100 earlier this year. And so, the usual lineup of experts — the same ones, in many cases, who’ve been wrong so many times in the past — are offering predictions for what plunging prices will mean for the U.S. oil boom. Here’s my prediction: They’ll be wrong this time, too.

Among the many reasons why pundits’ crystal balls are so often murky: various factors go into the makeup of prices; and the economics of oil-field drilling are complicated, which is why even “break-even” declarations about when oil-shale drilling in Texas or North Dakota might become unprofitable can be off base as well.

As to the first point — all the factors that comprise the fluctuating price of oil — Cassleman writes:

In July 2008, my Journal colleague Neil King asked a wide range of energy journalists, economists and other experts to anonymously predict what the price of oil would be at the end of the year. The nearly two dozen responses ranged from $70 a barrel at the low end to $167.50 at the high end. The actual answer: $44.60.

It isn’t surprising that experts aren’t good at predicting prices. Global oil markets are a function of countless variables — geopolitics, economics, technology, geology — each with its own inherent uncertainty. And even if you get those estimates right, you never know when a war in the Middle East or an oil boom in North Dakota will suddenly turn the whole formula on its head.

But none of that stops television pundits from making confident predictions about where oil prices will head in the coming months, and then using those predictions as the basis for production forecasts. Based on their track record, you should ignore them.

Fuel Freedom Staff

Oil prices surge after taking a hit this week

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We’ve heard a lot about psychology in oil prices lately.

Some stories mention the “psychological” threshold of $60 a barrel. Well, many psyches were put on edge this week, as Brent crude closed below that mark on Tuesday and Thursday, territory it hadn’t seen since May 2009. But it surged $2.11 to $61.38 Friday, a gain of 3.4 percent.

U.S. crude (WTI, or West Texas Intermediate) rose $2.41, to $56.52, up 4.5 percent.

Has oil started to climb back up again after hitting the ceiling? According to Reuters:

While some traders may be betting that $60 a barrel Brent represents a likely floor for the market, others remain unconvinced. With uncertainty high, demand for options has surged this week, with the CBOE crude oil volatility index soaring to its highest since 2011.

“This is a surprisingly forceful run up as fundamentally nothing’s changed in this market in terms of supply-demand,” said Gene McGillian, senior analyst at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut.

“I think the switch in WTI’s front-month and the second short-covering act for the week kind of got overblown.”

 

Fuel Freedom Staff

Here’s why air fares aren’t going down, despite cheap fuel

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Drivers are loving life whenever they fill up at the gas station. According to AAA’s Daily Fuel Gauge Report, the national average Thursday was $2.477 for regular 87-octane gas. That’s down 23 percent from the same time last year, when the average was $3.216.

So why haven’t air travelers seen similar savings on airline tickets? After all, fuel accounts for between one-third and one-half of the entire cost of running an airline, and the jet-fuel prices have fallen at the same pace as automotive gasoline, down 32 percent over the last year.

And yet not only are airlines not discounting fares, they’re counting their winnings after years of economic struggles: Slate’s Josh Vorhees reports that airlines in North America expect their profits to grow from $11.9 billion in 2014 to $13.2 billion in 2015. The trade group Airlines for America said in a statement that its members are re-investing in 317 new planes, better amenities for passengers, dividends for shareholders and employee benefits. The group added that:

Air travel remains one of the best consumer bargains, given its superior speed and price compared with other modes of transportation. From 2000-2013, U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 35 percent, whereas average domestic airfare rose 15 percent. Thus, adjusted for inflation, the average round-trip domestic fare fell 15 percent.

When the airline industry is financially healthy, everyone wins. Airlines should be treated like every other business. When the price of coffee beans falls, no one asks Starbucks why his or her latte does not cost less. …

Here are three big reasons why airline customers aren’t seeing cheaper fares:

  • Many airlines buy fuel ahead of time, locking in a fixed price for six months or longer. It’s called “hedging,” and although not every airline does it (American doesn’t, and it’s reaping a windfall), it explains why some travelers are still being hit with fuel surcharges. Sen. Chuck Schumer wants the federal government to investigate the industry: “Ticket prices should not shoot up like a rocket and come down like a feather,” he said.
  • Supply and demand. Where’s the incentive for airlines to reduce fares when their North American planes are filled to 85.1 percent capacity? As The New York Times notes in an editorial, “a series of megamergers has significantly reduced competition in the industry. The four biggest airlines in the United States — Delta, Southwest, United and American — control about 80 percent of airline capacity, down from 11 companies as recently as 2005. For most travelers, that has meant higher prices and jam-packed planes.”

It’s impossible to predict where fuel prices will be in the new year, and airline executives might be reluctant to reduce fares now, only to have to hike them again in a few months. Alexandre de Juniac, head of Air France-KLM, told The New York Times that oil might be between $70 and $80 a barrel next year (it’s below $60 now). But he added: “Obviously, no one really knows.”

Arctic Leaf

Will falling gas prices hurt alternative vehicles?

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Everyone is saying that falling gas prices will ruin the market for alternative fuels and vehicles. But it isn’t time to give up on them now.
Ethanol and methanol are still two liquid fuels that will easily substitute for gasoline in our current infrastructure. Ethanol is making headway, particularly in the Midwest, where it is still cheaper than gasoline and has a lot of support in the farm economy. The big decision will come when the EPA finally sets the quota for ethanol consumption for 2015 – if the agency ever gets around to making a decision. (The decision has been postponed since last spring.) A high number should guarantee the sale of ethanol no matter what the price of gasoline.

That leaves methanol, the fuel that has the most potential to replace gasoline and would it fit right into our present infrastructure but must still run the gamut of EPA approval and would require a change in habits among motorists. Methanol is still relatively unknown among car owners and is hindered by people’s reluctance to try new things. But the six methanol plants that the Chinese are building in the Texas and Louisiana region could break the ice on methanol. The Chinese have 100,000 methanol cars on the road now and are shooting for 500,000 by 2015. Some of that methanol might end up in American engines as well.

Another alternative that is still in play is the electric car. In theory, electric cars should not be affected much by gas prices because that is an entirely different infrastructure. The appeal is not based on price so such as the idea of freeing yourself from the oil companies completely and relying on a source of energy.

The Nissan Leaf has not been badly hit by oil prices. Tesla’s cars, of course, have not gone mass market yet, but the company is relying on a new breed of consumer who does not worry too much about the price and will appreciate the car for its style and performance. Elon Musk has shown no indication of backing down on his great Gigafactory, and Tesla is still aiming to have the Model III (its third-generation vehicle, which will come at a much lower expected price point of $35,000) ready by 2017.

This leaves natural-gas-powered vehicles as the only group that might be hurt by falling gas prices, and here the news is not too good. Sales of vehicles that have compressed natural gas as their fuel declined 7.2 percent in November. As David Whiston, an analyst at Morningstar, told the Houston Chronicle’s Ryan Holeywell: “I hear all the time from dealers: As soon as gas starts to go down, people look at light trucks.”

CNG’s appeal has always been that it will be cheaper than regular gasoline, so plunging gas prices make it lose much of its appeal. It costs $5,000 to install a tank for CNG fuel, and that is not likely to attract a lot of takers with oil prices low. For a gas-electric hybrid, there is similar math. For the Toyota Corolla, the electric portion adds another $7,000 to the price. That’s why the CNG-based solutions never caught up with the light-duty vehicle. They are still attractive for high-mileage vehicles like buses and garbage trucks. “For the consumers doing the math, if gas goes below $3 per gallon, the payback period goes out a number of years,” Whiston told Holeywell. “And the break-even point makes sense for fewer people.”

The collapse in gas prices is not the end of the road for alternative fuels. In a couple of months, the price may be up again, and all those people who have rushed out to buy light trucks will be stuck with them. The changeover to alternative fuels is a slow process, fraught with false starts and misleading signals. But in the end, it will be well worth it to reduce our dependence on imported oil and achieve some kind of energy independence. Car buyers have very short memories and an inability to look very far into the future. Remember, it’s always a passing parade. Consequently, their reaction has been only short-term. But once people buy those trucks, they’re stuck with them for the next 5 to 10 years. If the price of gas goes up again, they may live to regret it.